Poker
Outs and Calculating Odds
Knowing your “outs” or the
cards that will potentially give you a winning hand is
one of the most important aspects of playing winning
poker. The amount of poker outs you have should
dictate every move you make when faced with the
decision to fold or continue playing a hand.
Determining your poker outs is simple. Start by
identifying your hand and the cards that would improve
your current hand to a winner. The cards that will
improve your hand are your poker outs. Below are a few
examples of possible hands and their total outs.
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Example
A |
You
have royal flush draw: A(s) 10(s) Q(s) J(s).
You suspect your opponent to have two pair.
To make your royal flush you would need to
catch the K(s)- 1 out
But you also know that a flush or straight
will also give you a winner. Therefore, you
could get any other spade 2(s), 3(s), 4(s),
5(s), 6(s), 7(s), 8(s), 9(s)- 8
outs, or any other king- K (c), K(h), K(d)-
3 outs
So for the above example you have a total of
12 cards that will make your hand a winner.
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Example
B - Texas Hold'em Application |
You
have Q(s) Q(h)
Your opponent holds K(s) 9(s)
The flop: K(d), 10(h), J(h) Turn 3(s)
In your hand you hold QQ plus you have a
4-card straight.
Your opponent has flopped top pair plus an
inside straight draw.
This example is very important to board games
such as Hold’em or
Omaha
where
community cards are used. Some attention must
be paid to your opponent’s hand before
calculating whether or not to call. In most
cases a Q on the turn or river would give you
trips and a powerful hand. But since a Q gives
your opponent a straight, you can not count
the two remaining Q’s among your outs.
So your poker outs for this hand are the 3
remaining 9’s or any of the four aces for a
total of 7 outs. This leaves the rest of the
deck for your opponent and makes it very tough
for you to call.
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Obviously, the above example is overly simplified
since we have shown you your opponent’s cards. The
example is set up to promote thinking in terms of what
your opponent has and being careful not to calculate
your outs including cards that may give your opponent
an even stronger hand.
Once
you begin to identify your outs, you can start to put
actual percentages behind your chances of winning.
While in many cases knowing the odds of making various
hands takes time, there are tools that can be used to
help you. One of which is to look over our detailed
list of Texas
Hold’em odds.
There you will find hundreds of possible hands and the
actual odds of improving them.
Another tool that will prove helpful in determining
your outs, once the flop is dealt, is the 4/2 method.
This is a simple equation that will give you a
ballpark figure on the odds of hitting one of your
outs.
4/2 Method for
Calculating Poker Odds -
When there are two cards left to come, multiply your
outs by 4. When there is one card left to come,
multiply your outs by two.
For example: After the flop with two cards to come
(turn and river) multiply your outs by 4.
If you have two outs, you have roughly an 8% (2 * 4 =
8) chance of making your hand
For example: After the turn with one card to come
(River) multiply your outs by 2.
If you have 2 outs, you have roughly a 4% (2 * 2 = 4)
chance of making your hand.
While the 4/2 method is not exact, it
will get you close enough to the true odds to make a
decision on whether or not to continue playing a hand.
Hopefully these examples give you a better idea of how
you can not only determine your outs, but also how to
use that knowledge to improve your game.
If you have any questions regarding calculating outs
or any of the information detailed here please email
us at info@thepokersource.com
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